by Rich Edwards Nov 8, 2024

Meta's Ad Machine

Why Fighting the Black Box Hurts Your Marketing

Marketing spend ratios, by asset tiers, for 2023 Source: Capital Performance Group

For financial marketers, understanding where and how to deploy Meta in your marketing mix has become critical. With banks allocating an average of 3% of non-interest expense to advertising—and growing—it’s worth examining how Meta’s evolving strategy should shape your own marketing approach.


Meta's Strategic Position: Understanding Where They Win

Meta commands approximately 21% of all digital ad spend, but more importantly, they’ve carved out a distinct position in the digital marketing landscape. While Google and Amazon excel at bottom-of-funnel search ads—capturing users actively seeking specific products—Meta dominates top-of-funnel discovery, where sophisticated algorithms identify potential customers before they even know they want your product.

This, in part, has led to a massive increase in digital ad spend by banking and financial service marketers.

US Banking Total Digital Ad Spend Growth % change Source: eMarketer


The Evolution of Meta's Advertising Model

When Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) threatened Meta’s advertising business, they didn’t just adapt—they fundamentally transformed their approach. As Ben Thompson of Stratechery observes in his recent analysis:

What makes this process somewhat galling for the advertiser is that the more of a black box Meta’s advertising becomes the better the advertising results, even as Meta makes more margin… platforms like Google or Meta can meet an advertiser’s goals — at a price point determined by an open auction — without the advertisers knowing which ads worked and which ones didn’t, keeping the margin from the latter. The galling bit is that this works out best for everyone: these platforms are absolutely finding customers you wouldn’t get otherwise, which means advertisers earn more when the platforms earn more too.

Meta has evolved to thrive in a post-ATT world by leveraging machine learning and probabilistic modeling. Instead of fighting this evolution, successful marketers are aligning their strategies with Meta’s strengths.


Aligning Your Marketing Strategy

Understanding Meta's position should fundamentally shape how you approach your marketing strategy:

  • Clear Role Definition: Use Meta for what it does best—top-of-funnel discovery and awareness. Save your bottom-funnel efforts for search platforms where intent is clearer.
  • Outcome-Based Planning: Instead of trying to control audience targeting, focus on defining clear business outcomes and letting Meta’s algorithms optimize toward them. This means shifting from demographic targeting to conversion event optimization.
  • Budget Allocation: Align your budget distribution with this strategic understanding. Meta’s discovery strengths make it particularly valuable for new product launches or expanding into new customer segments.


Implications for Marketing Teams

This strategic alignment has important implications for how marketing teams should operate.

For In-House Teams:

  1. Train performance marketers to focus on outcome definition and measurement rather than manual targeting optimization
  2. Develop clear testing frameworks that measure incremental lift rather than getting lost in attribution debates
  3. Build creative strategies that support algorithm learning through volume and variation

For Agency Relationships:

  1. Evaluate agencies based on their understanding of platform strengths rather than claims of “special” targeting capabilities
  2. Ensure compensation structures don’t incentivize excessive manual optimization
  3. Look for agencies that demonstrate sophisticated testing approaches rather than detailed targeting strategies


The Path Forward

Success in this new environment requires:

  • Understanding Meta’s strategic position in your marketing mix
  • Aligning your marketing approach with how the platform actually works
  • Ensuring your teams (both internal and external) are equipped to execute within this framework
  • Measuring success through business outcomes rather than proxy metrics

While it might feel counterintuitive to embrace less transparency, fighting against Meta’s evolution will likely hurt your marketing effectiveness. The key is understanding where and how Meta fits into your broader marketing strategy and then aligning your execution approach accordingly.



That’s the week. To go out on a high note, watch America’s Dad Tom Hanks share this funny story about filming the not so funny Captain Phillips. Click below to let us know how we did:

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